Safe Speed Forums

The "computer model" is perfectly flawless.
It is doing what it was programmed to do.
Predict rising temperatures ad-infinitum.
In fact, it is so accurately programmed that it probably cannot have any other output (no matter what the input)

Meanwhile:



And:



http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/dominic_lawson/article6982310.ece

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The world runs on oil, period. No other substance can compete when it comes to energy density, flexibility, ease of handling, ease of transportation. If oil didn’t exist we would have to invent it.”

56 years after it was decided it was needed, the Bedford Bypass is nearing completion. The last single carriageway length of it.We have the most photogenic mayor though, always being photographed doing nothing

Could you elaborate on the difference and how it applies?

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Views expressed are personal opinions and are not necessarily shared by the Safe Speed campaign

One is collecting data. The other is making predictions from that data.
I am much more inclined to accept the accuracy of the first than of the second.

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When I see an adult on a bicycle, I do not despair for the future of the human race. H.G. Wells
When I see a youth in a motor car I do d.c.brown

I'm confused, possibly my own doing.
I appreciate the "weather is indeed easier to predict than climate" debate appears to have wrapped up, but I would like this relatively insignificant point clarified.

As I see it, AGW is about "predictions from that data" (IPCC predictions) - is it not?
If so, the GW must be about "collecting data", so using your own logic I don't understand your comment "proponents of GW are predicting.".
Are the those "proponents of GW" collecting or predicting? Can you clarify?

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Views expressed are personal opinions and are not necessarily shared by the Safe Speed campaign

Fasten your seat-belt before you read this one. It’s a corker. It is a quote from Susan Watts, BBC Science Editor, on Newsnight, as she attempted to explain why the abysmal failure of climate “scientists” to predict current weather conditions does not in any way reduce their credibility in predicting global warming. Watts said: “In fact that seasonal forecast predicting a mild winter wasn’t actually wrong, but it left people with the wrong impression.”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/geral ... s-deniers/

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nigel_bytes

Mea Culpa, Steve. I said "Colder winters are not incompatible with an increase in average temperature provided that the summers get hotter. In fact that is exactly what some proponents of GW are predicting." I should have said " ...that is exactly what some proponents of GW believe is happening". Their belief been based on a very simple statistical analysis of the collected data.

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When I see an adult on a bicycle, I do not despair for the future of the human race. H.G. Wells
When I see a youth in a motor car I do d.c.brown

It is a bit early to decide whether or not this Winter is going to be a mild one or not. Six weeks of very warm weather in February and March could have this winter going down as one of the warmest this century.

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When I see an adult on a bicycle, I do not despair for the future of the human race. H.G. Wells
When I see a youth in a motor car I do d.c.brown

It makes little difference whether this winter is the coldest on record, or not.
The LONG TERM trend is for the world to heat-up.
The fact that the last ten+ years have been cooling years is irrelevant, soon we will be basking in the heat of winter.
The PROBLEM is that in the midst of this natural warming there exists a political movement to make the most of it.
So you can attribute the warming to man-made actions, and then say you can reduce the effects [of the warming] by reducing the man-made emissions.
Little problems can be smoothed-over by a very compliant press and media (such as the minor problem that 95% of the CO2 would still be here even if 100% of man-made emissions were not)
And in any case, minor problems can easily be ignored anyway.....since most people just don't know and don't care.

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The world runs on oil, period. No other substance can compete when it comes to energy density, flexibility, ease of handling, ease of transportation. If oil didn’t exist we would have to invent it.”

56 years after it was decided it was needed, the Bedford Bypass is nearing completion. The last single carriageway length of it.We have the most photogenic mayor though, always being photographed doing nothing

"Mea Culpa" Fair enough; been there done it. Onwards!

Going with the correction:

Can you show their data? We all should be able to view this data because that data must be actual collected (raw measurements) and aren’t mere predictions from ‘clandestine’ models.
It is right to ask because I believe a lot of sceptics are sceptical of this (myself included) and deniers are outright denying it.

Anyway, like I already said, a hotter summer doesn’t automatically mean a higher average temp.


Is Christmas day in the Autumn season?
The months December through February (inclusive) are the accepted months of winter, both de facto and, more importantly by climate references; you can see that from my earlier link. The next few days have been predicted to be more of the same, meaning there is only 2 weeks left (out of the 13) for a "recovery" – a recovery of what I leave for the reader to decide.

The point is, their prediction (as Nigel highlighted) was the reverse to what actually occurred for 11 (and counting) of those 13 weeks – that alone is quite damning! Their being right for the last 2 weeks couldn't even count as a consolation prize!
edit No Steve, we're not in February yet!

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Views expressed are personal opinions and are not necessarily shared by the Safe Speed campaign

Tja Liebchen .. again you show up how they manipulate the statistics But we have had the mild Feb way back when on occasion in the last 30 year period und beyond per the records too.. Admit we not notice quite so much in High Alp as I grow up there as we always had the deep snows und the avalanches too.

But your average Hansel will not note the milder-ish February with the weak sunshine und the grey clouds.. He will remember



und you can rightly deduce that the guy ist saying "pas devant les enfants" :paperbag: but as I am a lady . .I am not to use the rudey words

But we know a computer will only do what it program to do. Ted once scared himself to most nervous wreck when he fed in some statistics about one of his lurgies und it tell him that we were all doomed once. But this was just based on a program which predicted based on collected data .. but a computer cannot take the unpredictable character of Mama Nature into account.. und you know what we wimmin are like

But they are now not saying "GLOBAL WARMING" but "CLIMATE CHANGE" und they say the weather ist not the issue but that the climate ist..

But the weather ist a consequence of the climate und the weather behave to all who live on the planet today as it always has done.. with UK seasons being "usually grey" apart from the odd week or two of "extremity" when Mad Dogs und Englishmen go out und turn into lobsters or go skating on surfaces which cannot hold their weights.. und none of them know how to in any of this weather but think they do as a general unscientific - but actual personal observation of what I und others have seen just recently

But what do I know.. I am only a ruddy cancer medical research scientist ..

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Nicht ganz im Lot!
Ich setze mich immer wieder in die Nesseln! Der Mad Doc ist mein Mann! Und ich benutzte seinen PC!

UND OUR SMILEYS? Smile ... und the the world smiles with you.
Smiley guy seen when you read
Fine me for Safe Speed
(& other good causes..)

Greatest love & Greatest Achievements Require Greatest Risk
But if you lose the driving plan - don't lose the COAST lesson.
Me?
Je ne regrette rien!

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The world runs on oil, period. No other substance can compete when it comes to energy density, flexibility, ease of handling, ease of transportation. If oil didn’t exist we would have to invent it.”

56 years after it was decided it was needed, the Bedford Bypass is nearing completion. The last single carriageway length of it.We have the most photogenic mayor though, always being photographed doing nothing

There just as much evidence to suggest "cooling" as there ist for warming :poporn: We think the planet could just be doing what nature intend it to do und we are not its master.. just its stewards for the time being.. but under the principle of stewardship or simply "good housekeeping" .. we still have to tend to it as we do our family palaces und give it a bit of TLC just the same.

We do our bit as we are a "waste not want not" bunch anyway

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Nicht ganz im Lot!
Ich setze mich immer wieder in die Nesseln! Der Mad Doc ist mein Mann! Und ich benutzte seinen PC!

UND OUR SMILEYS? Smile ... und the the world smiles with you.
Smiley guy seen when you read
Fine me for Safe Speed
(& other good causes..)

Greatest love & Greatest Achievements Require Greatest Risk
But if you lose the driving plan - don't lose the COAST lesson.
Me?
Je ne regrette rien!

Let us continue to follow the money:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/10/un-ipcc-chief-pachauri-under-fire-in-india-for-conflicts-of-interest/#more-15101

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The world runs on oil, period. No other substance can compete when it comes to energy density, flexibility, ease of handling, ease of transportation. If oil didn’t exist we would have to invent it.”

56 years after it was decided it was needed, the Bedford Bypass is nearing completion. The last single carriageway length of it.We have the most photogenic mayor though, always being photographed doing nothing

Accepted by whom. Astronomically winter starts on the Winter Solstice (Dec 21 +- 1/2 a day) and finishes at the Vernal Equinox (March 21st +- 1/2 day). So we are a bare three weeks into winter so plenty of time to redress the temperature balance. Even granting your own definition of winter we are less than half way through.

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When I see an adult on a bicycle, I do not despair for the future of the human race. H.G. Wells
When I see a youth in a motor car I do d.c.brown

Really!

And there was I thinking that Dec 21 was called "Midwinters Day"


(Having said that, it is true that the weather lags the callander by a month or so. (Who was it who said that "Mother Russia is defended by two great Generals! General January and General Febuary!))

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"The road to a police state is paved with public safety legislation"

Why the hell did I think we were in February? There's goes that Mea Culpa! Must go for a lay down!

Your original stated "6 weeks" is valid, of course, but that doesn't include March (how did you get 6 weeks when you went from Jan 11th to March 21st?).
Even so, thus far we're still obviously below the average (see below; there's no way we've had more than a 5 deg average), so the weather would have to go some to achieve the definition of a "mild winter", which would be odd being so many cold weather records are being broken.




Is weather/climate associated with the term Meteorological, or with Astronomical?
Now we already know the business of predicting the climate must include so many factors, but the stars? Why don't you be done with it and just consult your horoscope

I also gave you a link (within a link) pointing to the Meteorological Office, did you follow it?



Do you have a link regarding the data/claims discussed within the first half of my earlier post.

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Views expressed are personal opinions and are not necessarily shared by the Safe Speed campaign

Do others also find that the overall weather forecast often shows higher temperatures than when you then see your local forecast?
And then when you check your own outside thermometer 'can' be lower.
I totally appreciate many pockets can be a degree or two out, but for last night temp the BBC main forecast for the whole of N Scot was 0 deg which I thought was non-sense, and then our local forecast showed - 9 although I had -11 ... !

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Safe Speed for Intelligent Road Safety through proper research, experience & guidance.

The temperature in Scotland at the moment is [average] 5 degrees centigrade (maybe)
The temperature here is 2 degrees C.
The temperature shown on my [permanently on] weather display on the pc is -0.3C at Alconbury (RAF)
The AVERAGE temperature in central uk over this January is, so far, -1.1C lower than the average temperature for the past decades(ish) (the usual average is 4.2C....so it's 5 degrees lower [average] at the moment....)
But a warmer last few weeks in January could mean that we have a higher January average than "normal" (but the forecast is for lower temperatures to continue)

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The world runs on oil, period. No other substance can compete when it comes to energy density, flexibility, ease of handling, ease of transportation. If oil didn’t exist we would have to invent it.”

56 years after it was decided it was needed, the Bedford Bypass is nearing completion. The last single carriageway length of it.We have the most photogenic mayor though, always being photographed doing nothing

The nearest weather station to me is 8 miles away. It is consistently different to any readings I usually have from out door thermometers. I think the fundamental problem is one of cloud cover and whether the weather station is under cloud or not. If you are too then temps will be similar. If it is clear and you're cloudy then you'll be warmer. The variation is massive. I've been seeing mins of -7 and a friends car temp reading was -13 at 10am at work only 7 miles away from me. I think my thermometer was showing -5 or warmer at the same time. Others are showing much colder temps at the same time as me only half a mile away. Also if the station is getting direct sunlight then it is bound to read warmer. Finding somewhere shady and out of the wind that is not artificially sheltered seems quite a tricky thing to do.

The weather would be far more accurate if loads more people got a weather station thingy that could access the internet and show actual weather data. If you linked it in to an accurate map you could see to a far greater degree what the actual weather is actually doing as there is far too much local variation.

Is there an easy way of becoming a weather station??? I checked a few local areas and they're using weather stations that are miles away. There is no way weather forecasting can be accurate if observation stations are so far apart as weather can be very localised. I'd be quite happy for one to be stuck on my garage to fill in the massive gaps that seem to be in the areas covered.

It would then be on/in an "urban heat island" !
The trick (apparently) is to find the stations with the HIGHEST temperatures and average from them.....not the ones that are LOWEST or MID-RANGE.
That is probably why the stations located in the middle of a town are the preferred stations...

Temp outside now 3.0C (middle of garden...the only heating to it is sparrows and chaffinches)
Temp on the PC (RAF Alconbury) 0.1C
Temp on the PC (changed to Cranfield airfield) 0.0C
Temp on the PC (changed to RAF Leuchars) 5.0C
Temp on the PC (changed to Gedney Hill weather) 1.4C

Average temperature is 1.6C

All done via weatherbug....

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The world runs on oil, period. No other substance can compete when it comes to energy density, flexibility, ease of handling, ease of transportation. If oil didn’t exist we would have to invent it.”

56 years after it was decided it was needed, the Bedford Bypass is nearing completion. The last single carriageway length of it.We have the most photogenic mayor though, always being photographed doing nothing