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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 07:46 
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mpaton2004 wrote:
But your trend continues downwards and hits zero somewhere around 2030, which is completely unrealistic, by any standards. There _must_ be a levelling off somewhere in a system where zero risk is an impossibility.


Exactly the correct degree of levelling off is built in. (Log scale graph as noted by Dr L.) The gradual improvement (downward curve) is the result of increasing investment in road safety between 1950 and 1994.

mpaton2004 wrote:
The 'big' changes have already been made. Until we get to the "next big thing", whatever that may be - motorcycle airbags, rubber bumpers, etc the changes are always going to be marginal, and offset by traffic volume increases, "bad" years, etc.


That's COMPLETE nonsense. Road safety has proved itself to be a big system that changes slowly and progressively under the influence of investment.

mpaton2004 wrote:
Until that technology is available and available cheaply, relative micromanagement is the only way forward, as we have experienced over the last 10 years. It's almost an experimentation phase!


Yeah. The experiment has failed. 10,000 have paid with their lives. That's why I'm here.

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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 08:30 
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SafeSpeed wrote:
Yeah. The experiment has failed. 10,000 have paid with their lives. That's why I'm here.

Paul, I'm not aware of the work that has gone into the production of the graph you have shown, but are you saying that it is the use of speed cameras of that period that has caused the rise in deaths? Could the rise be attributed to, or compounded by, other factors? Perhaps the increased use of mobile phones in cars over the same period or the rise in the adoption of ABS?


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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 08:40 
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WildCat wrote:
It ist called manners und courtesy.

While I agree with you we have not seen that Brunstrom should have asked to use the pictures. I presume they belong to the NWP and he was using them in an NWP event. Would you ask for (say) accident investigation not to use certain pictures for training purposes for the same reasons?
WildCat wrote:
I was asked if photos of my injuries could be used once. My family refused und we refused on Ferdl's behalf as well. They wanted to use them as a "speed issue".

So .. there are other considerations... as to how such release of data affect all parties involved.

Clearly whatever authority was involved intended those pictures to be released 'publicly' and undertook the correct procedures before attempting to use them.
WildCat wrote:
As it ist .. the image of his death has not helped anyone .. und worsened an already weak relationship between Brunstrom's policing style und his weary subjects in Brunstromia. :roll: und also caused a good working relationship between hard working cops und the public to deteriorate all the more :roll:

Absolutely.


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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 08:48 
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WildCat wrote:
Only, mein Lieber ... we do not know how this incident occurred..

Other than we do? We have this from The Times
Quote:
At an inquest into the death of Mr Gibney, it was stated that he had cut the corner on a right-hand bend on a road near Ruthin, North Wales.

He was travelling with five motorcycle companions at the time. One described how he heard the sound of an explosion and saw his friend flying into the air.

John Hughes, the North Wales Central Coroner, described Mr Gibney’s riding as “reprehensible”.

He heard that the motorcyclist had no licence, no insurance and no specialist training for the powerful machine capable of speeds of up to 190 mph.

Mr Gibney was riding a 1,300cc Suzuki Hayabusa when he failed to spot an oncoming Vauxhall Astra in a dip. He collided head-on in a 60 mph zone on the B5105 near Lanfihangel, North Wales, in September 2003.

Mr Gibney, of West Derby, wore a black T-shirt that read: “Hello officer, Yes my car is emarked, Yes my number plate is legal, Yes my tyres have tread, Now p*** off And catch some REAL criminals.”


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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 09:06 
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Dr L wrote:
mpaton2004 wrote:
But your trend continues downwards and hits zero somewhere around 2030, which is completely unrealistic, by any standards. There _must_ be a levelling off somewhere in a system where zero risk is an impossibility.

The 'big' changes have already been made. Until we get to the "next big thing", whatever that may be - motorcycle airbags, rubber bumpers, etc the changes are always going to be marginal, and offset by traffic volume increases, "bad" years, etc.

Until that technology is available and available cheaply, relative micromanagement is the only way forward, as we have experienced over the last 10 years. It's almost an experimentation phase!

What you failed to notice was the the graph was plotted with a logarithmic vertical axis, following an exponential decrease, so your argument about reaching zero is a falacy. This also takes account of the decreasing rate of decrease with the decreasing level of fatalities.

May I suggest you have a look at some maths books about such trends.

Correct.
A logarithmic axis of a graph will not have a zero point.
Paul is right to have used a logarithmic scale (as opposed to linear) as it correctly depicts the overall trend of the curve (to within accepted mathematic standards). This also fits in with the expected exponential fall associated with a working road safety policy (remember the target of 40% reduction by 2010?); hence the graph should never level off. The deviation at the tail is very telling - 2006 will see a plateau, perhaps even a rise……

Quote:
The latest figures from the Department of Transport show that despite an increase in the number of speed cameras, the number of people killed on the roads is going up. According to statistics, a total of 3,210 people died in crashes in the 12 months to September last year, compared with 3,177 a year earlier.

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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 09:11 
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[/quote]Yeah. The experiment has failed. 10,000 have paid with their lives. That's why I'm here.[/quote]

So I am right then, in effect, Brunstom has blood on his hands! Good news does not sell newspapers - never has, never will and he knew this and he knew exactly what the press would do!

To address an earlier point, the performance and handling of modern machines is in a completely different league to that of 20 short years ago. An affordable modern day sports car would give a good ole' Testerossa a run for its money and people are apt to use this new found performance in the wrong places and without proper training.

When I use the pool car at work, a Diesel Astra, I find at times that I can't possibly get onto a roundabout because others are entering and racing around it like they are at Brands Hatch! To enter it myself, I look like I have cut them up when in fact they are simply going too fast in the wrong place and what's worse, I look like the bad guy :oops1: Once again, it's not about speed per se, but where people are using it! In Portugal I remember they had humps on the approach to islands, not that I'm a fan of humps :idea:

It's an awful admission but, in the NHS, the summer months are euphemistically known as donor season because of the fresh supply of organs from young motorcyclists. I dread it! Every year I ask myself what can we do. One thing I know for sure, the answer isn't more cameras.

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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 10:22 
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WildCat wrote:
Und in any case .. a speed cam did not stop him nor did the fear of getting pinged stop him.

Had there been the constant threat of some lurking cop somewhere .. then maybe this would have deterred the ride or at least made the riding a bit more "compliant und less red misted" - after all he was a 40 year old Papa.

But it could have been that crisis some have over reaching 40 years .:roll: (though this ist now apparently the new "30" with "30" being the new "20" und not being classed as old farty until aged 90 years. :wink: )

IG did say once that his worst offenders on his patch are the born again wannabe hell's angel types :roll:



I'm a born again biker, once my daughter had grown and fled the nest I was able to return to my true love.

As I have gotten older I have come to realise that old age is always ten years older than whatever age I am :)

It's the big 50 next year so I'm after a fast car and loose women. Any takers? :D

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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 10:39 
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Icandoit wrote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
Yeah. The experiment has failed. 10,000 have paid with their lives. That's why I'm here.

Paul, I'm not aware of the work that has gone into the production of the graph you have shown, but are you saying that it is the use of speed cameras of that period that has caused the rise in deaths?


Close - I'm saying that 'bad policy' founded on and typified by speed cameras has caused the loss of trend.

Icandoit wrote:
Could the rise be attributed to, or compounded by, other factors? Perhaps the increased use of mobile phones in cars over the same period or the rise in the adoption of ABS?


I've been there in as much detail as possible. The most telling finding is that the trend hasn't been lost in many other countries where those factors (and most others) are also present.

I first drew this conclusion in late 2002. No one has been able to disprove it or provide a better explanation. The lastest 'official' information is that the trend has been lost because 'drivers are getting worse'. Well, of course they are getting worse - we're giving them the wrong safety information.

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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 10:46 
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SafeSpeed wrote:
Icandoit wrote:
Could the rise be attributed to, or compounded by, other factors? Perhaps the increased use of mobile phones in cars over the same period or the rise in the adoption of ABS?

I've been there in as much detail as possible. The most telling finding is that the trend hasn't been lost in many other countries where those factors (and most others) are also present.

That makes sense.

Are there other countries where speed cameras are being used in a similar way to the way they are here and can be seen to have caused similar problems?


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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 10:54 
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Don't mean to butt in but yes. America's equivilent to Paul...

http://www.hwysafety.com/hwy_montana_2001.htm

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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 11:06 
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Icandoit wrote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
Icandoit wrote:
Could the rise be attributed to, or compounded by, other factors? Perhaps the increased use of mobile phones in cars over the same period or the rise in the adoption of ABS?

I've been there in as much detail as possible. The most telling finding is that the trend hasn't been lost in many other countries where those factors (and most others) are also present.

That makes sense.

Are there other countries where speed cameras are being used in a similar way to the way they are here and can be seen to have caused similar problems?


Australia is the closest match and checks both the 'policy' and 'results' boxes. Sweden has a speed kills / 'inherently safe' policy and they have lost their trend too. I could go on all day - but the pattern match seems perfect.

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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 15:17 
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Ministers are now calling for his resignation.

BBC News

Quote:
Biker photo 'unacceptable' - Hain
Mark Gibney (family photo)
Mark Gibney died in a motorbike crash in 2003
Peter Hain has said a decision by North Wales Police to show photographs of a decapitated motorcyclist without family consent was "completely unacceptable".

The Welsh Secretary told the Commons chief constable Richard Brunstrom's decision caused "enormous distress".

Mr Brunstrom used the photos of Mark Gibney, 40 at a private media briefing to show the consequences of speeding

The force did not comment as the matter has been referred to the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).

'Not consulted'

Mr Gibney was killed when his bike crashed on a bend on the B5105 between Cerrigydrudion and Ruthin in Denbighshire in 2003.

A graphic image of Mr Gibney's severed head, lying on a grass verge, was shown to journalists and council officials during a presentation by Mr Brunstrom last week.

Mr Gibney's headless torso was also shown, as well as the bodies of two young men who died in a different crash.

Peter Hain
Peter Hain was answering questions in the Commons

Mr Brunstrom said he was showing the images to "give the context" of his anti-speeding campaign, but confirmed that permission had not been sought from Mr Gibney's family, who come from Merseyside.

At Commons question time, Labour MP for Clwyd South West, Martyn Jones, asked Mr Hain to join him in calling for Mr Brunstrom's resignation.

Mr Hain told MPs: "I agree this very much with Mr Jones that this episode has caused enormous distress for the relatives of this victim, who were not even consulted in advance about this behaviour by the North Wales Police chief constable.

"I think it's completely unacceptable and I know the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC) are looking into it very seriously indeed."

North Wales Police Authority voluntarily referred the matter to the IPCC on Tuesday. The force has twice apologised to Mr Gibney's family.

Responding to the Commons exchange, a spokewoman for North Wales Police said it would be inappropriate for the force to make any comment as the matter had been referred to the IPCC.

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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 15:25 
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R1Nut wrote:
Ministers are now calling for his resignation.


Indeed. Safe Speed issued the following PR at 15:18:

PR477: Your time is up, Mr Brunstrom

news: for immediate release

Commenting on the news that Welsh Secretary Peter Hain joined the universal condemnation of Chief Constable Brunstrom's ill-judged 'picture show'...

Paul Smith, founder of http://www.safespeed.org.uk, said: "Your time is up, Mr Brunstrom, do the decent thing for once and go now."

"The distress you have caused is extreme and cannot be put right."

<ends>

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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 16:09 
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You know that old saying about giving someone enough rope....


.......Do you think that will be part of the next CC of North Wales's induction?

Game over I feel.


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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 16:31 
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civil engineer wrote:
You know that old saying about giving someone enough rope....


.......Do you think that will be part of the next CC of North Wales's induction?

Game over I feel.



Who's to say his successor won't carry the same torch :yikes:


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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 16:52 
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If I was the government and ACPO looking for a face saving way to exit the 'speed kills' game what better way than to throw the mad mullah to the wolves as a way to signal a change of emphasis.

Brunstrom is the personification of speed camera enforcement. He's no longer responsible but he is still seen as the main champion.

To steal some football parlance I think that the man is now bigger than the club!

Even his ill fated briefing talked about less focus on hard enforcement. The tide is turning.


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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 17:28 
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civil engineer wrote:
If I was the government and ACPO looking for a face saving way to exit the 'speed kills' game what better way than to throw the mad mullah to the wolves as a way to signal a change of emphasis.

Brunstrom is the personification of speed camera enforcement. He's no longer responsible but he is still seen as the main champion.


I agree. This whole news story is so bad, that I speculated ages ago that it looked as if it was designed to be bad.

I'm still wondering...

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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 18:11 
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Also in his briefing he failed to make capital of the consequences of driving/riding while uninsured, choosing to put all his eggs in the speeding basket!
Surely a serious ommission for a force who wished to show the effects on innocent victims!

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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2007 20:20 
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The guys a complete ass, i suggest they put him back in the gorilla outfit he's so fond of wearing, and drop him at the local zoo for the randy males to play with, see how he likes being f***** for once. :)

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DeltaF wrote:
The guys a complete ass, i suggest they put him back in the gorilla outfit he's so fond of wearing, and drop him at the local zoo for the randy males to play with, see how he likes being f***** for once. :)


Liebchen. .. you are so direct. :lol: :love:

I do recall that little anecdote of his. Und the one where he fancied himself in his uniform .. which remind me of Rowan Atkinson in a "Not Nine O'Clock" sketch und coming embarrassing cropper :rotfl:

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