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PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 01:56 
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When you have your work peer reviewed, then it can be considered "credible". Until then, it is to be treated with caution.

If one is to consider Joksch curve, then as vehicle speed goes up, impact speed goes up, therefore the chance of a casualty increases. So how can driving faster than the speed limit improve safety? If there are few hazards, going faster may not negatively affect it, but it sure doesn't improve it.


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 01:59 
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mpaton2004 wrote:
In case it's not clear:

The foundations and building blocks of safe driving are contained in the Highway Code. Whilst it is not the be all and end all of safe driving, a large proportion of road users in this country would benefit greatly by learning and applying the advice it gives.


Except the Highway Code glosses over the REALLY important stuff with phrases like when it is safe to do so. There's hardly anything in there about:

- how to concentrate
- how to run visual search
- how to recognise hazards
- how to assess risk
- how to mitigate risk

These subtle subconsciopus skills have a far bigger role to play in road safety than 'rules compliance'. And if you read the contributory factors data that you have referenced twice, you'll find that 9% of them are rules violations, while the remaining 91% were subtler driver errors in observation, concentration and judgement.

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 02:04 
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I'm curious to know why you are using this 12% figure as a point of contention?

If 17% is "inappropriate" and "12%" in "excessive" the final result is 29% of accidents had someone driving too fast as a contributory factor (which is where they got the 1/3 thing from)

1/3 of crashes may not have "Exceeding the speed limit" as a contributory factor but certainly "Driving too fast" would be accurate.


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 02:08 
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mpaton2004 wrote:
I'm curious to know why you are using this 12% figure as a point of contention?

If 17% is "inappropriate" and "12%" in "excessive" the final result is 29% of accidents had someone driving too fast as a contributory factor (which is where they got the 1/3 thing from)

1/3 of crashes may not have "Exceeding the speed limit" as a contributory factor but certainly "Driving too fast" would be accurate.


Because the figures are always used in the context of "Speed kills, we must stick up more cameras"

And of course cameras can do absolutely nothing about the 17%.

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 02:10 
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mpaton2004 wrote:
Parrot of Doom wrote:
mpaton2004 wrote:
Clearly the statistics show that most people don't, and therefore crash.

http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/d ... 612594.pdf


Most people is not 5%, or 12%, or even 14%.

I'm still laughing. And wiping my bottom.


There's nothing funny about any of the following:

Inappropriate or excessive speed was reported as a contributory factor in 29% of all fatal accidents. (Inappropriate 17%, Excessive 12%)

Loss of control was a contributory factor in 35% of all fatal accidents.

Careless, reckless, or in a hurry was a contributory factor in 18% of all fatal accidents.

Aggressive driving was a factor in 8% of all fatal accidents.

Every single one of these is directly related to the appropriateness of the speed drivers choose to drive at at any given time, particularly "Loss of control" accidents.


It's extreme wishful thinking (or even fraud) to add driver quality factors to legal compliance factors and then PRETEND that speed limit compliance will solve driver quality factors. It won't. It can't.

The FACT is that 95% of crashes didn't involve ANY vehicle exceeding a speed limit. This tells us that speed enforcement has the maximum potential to address 5% of injury crashes.

mpaton2004 wrote:
Incidentally - Stolen Vehicles are responsible for negliible amounts of KSI, something SS continually mentions as a major contributor (when it clearly isn't)


That's not true. I frequently refer to 'non-compliant' and 'rogue driver' groups, of which 'stolen vehicles' are one small subset.

We're starting to get a little more information about how these groups overlap with excessive speed crashes: http://www.safespeed.org.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?t=11472

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 02:12 
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What would be interesting is a comparison of the %age of drivers who exceed the speed limit to the %ages of accidents caused by inappropriate/excessive speed, and the ratio of the latter two.

I hypothesise that where the former is greater, the ratio of the latter will be weighted towards excessive, and vice versa. Stay with me here...

If we then compare the ratio where excessive is defined not as exceeding the speed limit, but exceeding the 85th %ile, then I believe we would have a relatively constant ratio across the study sites, with those showing a higher ratio towards inappropriate requiring reengineering.

Would welcome the comments of those able to understand the implications of these hypotheses, trolls need not apply...


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 02:17 
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Oh it must be too late - this nested post thing has got the better of me!

Night NIght!


Last edited by Mole on Sun Dec 31, 2006 02:22, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 02:21 
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mpaton2004 wrote:
I'm curious to know why you are using this 12% figure as a point of contention?

If 17% is "inappropriate" and "12%" in "excessive" the final result is 29% of accidents had someone driving too fast as a contributory factor (which is where they got the 1/3 thing from)

1/3 of crashes may not have "Exceeding the speed limit" as a contributory factor but certainly "Driving too fast" would be accurate.



But what (I thought!) we (Safespeed members in general) were against was camera enforcement of speed limits? Unless I'm very much mistaken, NOBODY, EVER has been prosecuted for "inappropriate" speed (within the limit) by a camera. If that's the case, it's not fair to include that 17% in these discussions.

On the other hand, if we ARE to include these, it means that "inappropriate speed" (within the posted limit) is a bigger problem than "excess speed". IF that's the case, speed limits are too high.

Unfortunately, until you get down to about walking pace, there will always be some accidents which could be attributed to "inappropriate speed" so you have 2 choices.

1. A man with a red flag to walk in front of every vehicle.

2. Education to increase the chance of everyone selecting an APPROPRIATE speed for the conditions.

We tried the first one and it didn't work out!


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 02:21 
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mpaton2004 wrote:
When you have your work peer reviewed, then it can be considered "credible". Until then, it is to be treated with caution.


It's available for anyone to review - including you. As you very well know.

Equally, as I'm sure you are aware, thousands have reviewed it and found no flaw.

Do you think that DfT 'independent reports' should be peer-reviewed also?

mpaton2004 wrote:
If one is to consider Joksch curve, then as vehicle speed goes up, impact speed goes up, therefore the chance of a casualty increases.


I don't know if that's gobbledegook or just plain wrong. Either way it's drivel.

mpaton2004 wrote:
So how can driving faster than the speed limit improve safety? If there are few hazards, going faster may not negatively affect it, but it sure doesn't improve it.


Remind me, what percentage of injury crashes involved a vehicle exceeding a speed limit? (5%)

And what percentage of drivers are speeding according to DfT speed survey data at sample sites (say on motorways or in 30mph zones)? (I'll save you some time - it's over half.)

And HOW ON EARTH is it possible that 'speeding' is so massively underrepresented in the crash stats?

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 02:25 
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SafeSpeed wrote:
The FACT is that 95% of crashes didn't involve ANY vehicle exceeding a speed limit. This tells us that speed enforcement has the maximum potential to address 5% of injury crashes.


I disagree, I think the knock-on effects can be positive. Speed enforcement doesn't just address the (5% of total) crashes with "Exceeding the speed limit" as a causal factor, it also has the potential to reduce any crashes containing any of the following causal factors:

* Inappropriate speed for conditions
* Loss of control
* Failed to judge another's speed
* Aggressive driving
* Reckless behaviour

Obviously we'll need some years of data before any conclusions can be drawn.


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 02:32 
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Jub Jub wrote:
So are you arguing against a failed safety measure, or a revenue raiser?

I think we may be getting to the crux.


Can I not argue against both?


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 02:40 
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mpaton2004 wrote:
Parrot of Doom wrote:
The same week, for the first time EVER, policed by speed cameras.


Where's the camera on the former Motorway section?


Here. In an emergency layby. And I've also seen one hiding on the road to the sewerage works, behind some trees.

Safety my arse

Now why, in the road's history, has the only time that speed enforcement ever been used been in the same week that the limit was dropped from 70mph to 50mph - when the road has an excellent safety record?

And why did the council drop the limit? Here you go:

Paul Bentley wrote:
As part of the current M60 widening project, improvements at Junction 8 will result in the new roundabout becoming a Principal road instead of its current motorway classification. This will allow the Carrington Spur to be re-classified as an “A-class” non-primary road. Associated with the re-classification of the Spur road is a requirement to introduce associated Traffic Regulation Orders to prevent stopping on the road, to regulate speed and prohibit certain highway users.

I would advise you that we are in the process of introducing the Traffic Orders and a 50mph speed limit on the Carrington Spur, along with the relevant traffic signs. It is anticipated that these will become operative on 24 May 2006.

Please find attached copies of the Notice of Intent for the various Orders. We received a total of 4 objections to the proposed speed limit Order and none to the other proposals. I can advise you that the objections raised to the speed limit have been summarised and included in a report which has been considered by the Executive Member for Technical Services. After careful consideration of the issues raised, it was approved that the proposed 50mph speed limit be introduced. Please be advised that the objection period is over and we cannot consider any further objections.

I would inform you that consideration has been given to the Department for Transports (DfT) advice on speed limits (Circular Roads 1/93) when proposing the 50mph limit for the Carrington Spur. Existing vehicle speeds have been used to determine the most appropriate limit. Greater Manchester Transportation Unit has an automatic traffic survey site on the Spur and this reveals an average weekday mean speed of 48.45mph and an average weekday 85th percentile speed of 55.75mph (based on data recorded between January 2005 and November 2005).

These results also indicate that just over 66% of vehicles travel along the spur at 50mph or less (Average weekday flows).

The DfT advice is that if the observed 85th percentile speed is within 7mph or 20 per cent of the proposed limit, the limit may be introduced. The proposed limit, therefore, accords to the DfT guidance and the 50mph speed limit Order will be made as advertised.

If you require a copy of the sealed 50mph Order (or any of the proposed orders) you will need to send a cheque for £15, made payable to TMBC. The address to send the cheque and request to is The Traffic Section, 2nd Floor Waterside House, Sale Waterside, Sale M33 7ZF.

Should you require any further information please contact me.

Regards,

Paul Bentley
Traffic & Transportation
0161 912 4783
07760 167072


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 02:49 
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mpaton2004 wrote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
The FACT is that 95% of crashes didn't involve ANY vehicle exceeding a speed limit. This tells us that speed enforcement has the maximum potential to address 5% of injury crashes.


I disagree, I think the knock-on effects can be positive. Speed enforcement doesn't just address the (5% of total) crashes with "Exceeding the speed limit" as a causal factor, it also has the potential to reduce any crashes containing any of the following causal factors:

* Inappropriate speed for conditions
* Loss of control
* Failed to judge another's speed
* Aggressive driving
* Reckless behaviour

Obviously we'll need some years of data before any conclusions can be drawn.


That's mad or stupid or wishful thinking or something.

I honestly thought you were more intelligent. Are you trying to wind us up?

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 02:51 
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mpaton2004 wrote:
* Inappropriate speed for conditions


How?

mpaton2004 wrote:
* Loss of control


How do you measure loss of control with automated enforcement?

mpaton2004 wrote:
* Failed to judge another's speed


This may have very little to do with exceeding the limit.

mpaton2004 wrote:
* Aggressive driving


Wheel-spin cameras?

mpaton2004 wrote:
* Reckless behaviour


How do you measure this?

mpaton2004 wrote:
Obviously we'll need some years of data before any conclusions can be drawn.


Thats the one thing you've said that I agree with.


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 02:57 
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Parrot of Doom wrote:
mpaton2004 wrote:
Obviously we'll need some years of data before any conclusions can be drawn.


Thats the one thing you've said that I agree with.


We have had 'speed kills' for over a decade, and the results have been absolutely dire. It's been the WORST decade in terms of road safety improvement. We've gone from fastest improving in the EU to the slowest improving. Policies based on oversimplified ideas like 'slower is safer' are directly responsible for failing to save thousands of lives.

We have plenty of data. It's high time the authorities owned up to their deadly mistakes.

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 03:01 
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Jub Jub wrote:
MGBGT wrote:
Jub Jub wrote:
RobinXe wrote:
Jub Jub, do you intend to keep asking the same questions over and over until something is said in response that you can twist to fit your agenda?



Nope. I'll keep asking until he gives a truthful answer. The ball's in his court.

You don't have to read the thread.


Paul has given you truthful answers, only for you to change the question. This smacks of some personal vendetta and ad hominem attack on Paul himself, which I find intolerable on our site.


I'm waiting for one of you to agree that you you think Paul's excitement at suggestions for evading convictions for speeding is explained away by it being research. I note that no-one has.

Asking someone to explain themselves properly isn't ad hominem.


But why just Paul's? What about the hundreds of others that post on this site? Your posts are all aimed at Paul, personally. If that isn't ad hominem, my schoolboy Latin stands for nothing.
Try starting a post 'MGBGT' or any other who posts on here. I feel you are too weak to stand the Tsunami of common feeling you will get.
We commonly get trolls to play with on this site - some of them very entertaining. You are a bore, posing as a member of the sperm-hat-and-Lycra brigade.
You have no agenda other than a puerile need to attack the founder of this site for whatever sad reason it is that drives you.

Desist now...

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 03:08 
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mpaton2004 wrote:
* Inappropriate speed for conditions

Quote:
How?

The very knowledge of that cameras may be present makes you slow down.

mpaton2004 wrote:
* Loss of control

Quote:
How do you measure loss of control with automated enforcement?


The very knowledge that cameras may be present makes you slow down, and hence you are less likely to lose control of your vehicle. (See the knock on effect?)

mpaton2004 wrote:
* Failed to judge another's speed

Quote:
This may have very little to do with exceeding the limit.

Granted, but if road users are driving at the speed limits then it creates a more consistent environment, and may reduce the people pulling out of junctions on those doing 90 in a 60 (for example) at night in the rain (I cite the A14 as an example of such a carriageway where this is likely to occur)

mpaton2004 wrote:
* Aggressive driving

mpaton2004 wrote:
* Reckless behaviour

Quote:
How do you measure this?


To be fair I'd probably link Aggressive driving with Reckless behaviour.

A CCTV camera monitoring the site would be a useful measure, and it would need to be humanly monitored to observe how behaviour like ...

Overtaking in single carriageway urban areas
Constant lane changing to slice through traffic
Rash acceleration

... was affected by the presence of the camera.


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 03:54 
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mpaton2004 wrote:
I disagree, I think the knock-on effects can be positive. Speed enforcement doesn't just address the (5% of total) crashes with "Exceeding the speed limit" as a causal factor, it also has the potential to reduce any crashes containing any of the following causal factors:

* Inappropriate speed for conditions
* Loss of control
* Failed to judge another's speed
* Aggressive driving
* Reckless behaviour

Obviously we'll need some years of data before any conclusions can be drawn.

Speed enforcement cannot affect aggressive driving or reckless behaviour, if people want to be reckless or aggressive, they will be, cameras won’t stop them – Police patrols will.
Loss of control can also be brought about by speed cameras, panic braking (compounded by the distraction of speedo watching).

However, it is true that if loss of control, aggressive driving and reckless driving are tackled, then inappropriate speeding will be too, as might be exceeding the speed limit – in fact this could actually be made redundant in many instances.

In terms of net contributions as ratios, exceeding the speed limit accounts for 12 of 228 total contributing factors for fatals, that’s 5.3% (DfT stats 612592 table 2.)

In a nutshell, if you solve much of the other 95%, then you’ve solved much of the originally remaining 5% anyway. All that resource for such a small return…..


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 04:01 
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smeggy wrote:
In terms of net contributions as ratios, exceeding the speed limit accounts for 12 of 228 total contributing factors for fatals, that’s 5.3% (DfT stats 612592 table 2.)

In a nutshell, if you solve much of the other 95%, then you’ve solved much of the originally remaining 5% anyway. All that resource for such a small return…..


And that's before you reckon with the deadly side effects...

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PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 04:14 
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I missed this gem...

mpaton2004 wrote:
It is your responsibility, as defined by the Road Traffic Act, to drive at an appropriate speed within the speed limit. Clearly the statistics show that most people don't, and therefore crash.


Actually the statistics show the EXACT opposite. Most drivers exceed the speed limit, but in a year only about 0.6% cause an injury crash. (200,000 injury crashes / 32 million licenced drivers.)

Or better yet, 0.03% cause an injury crash while exceeding a speed limit (200,000 * 5% / 32 million) in a year. That's 1 in 3,200.

Is 0.03% 'most' in Patonworld?

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