Just to clarify my point a little. What I was trying to say, and failing miserably, is that if you leave a gap it will get filled at which point you are driving too close again.
So I have a choice of drive too close behind the same car for a long time or drive too close behind a variety of different cars for a long time, with very small intervals of having a half decent gap from time to time. The first one gets you to your destination faster, but the principal arguments here are about safety, so I will concentrate on that.
Neither solution is particularly great, and none of them match up with the ideals that Paul and others are advocating in this thread. If you find yourself on a relatively quiet motorway where it is possible to live up to that ideal then I fully agree with Paul, sadly there's plenty of motorways where it isn't possible, especially around the midlands.
Which is safer, well if you only look at "small gap = bad" then obviously having the half decent gap from time to time is a lower exposure to risk and therefore safer, but there is more too it than that.
If you keep an eye 2 or 3 cars ahead of the one you are following, in addition to the one you are following, you can make a pretty good guess of what is about to happen. I am not one of those reps tailgating who get involved in the red light cascade as soon as the lead car drops it's speed by 0.1mph. It's trivial to see that cascade coming and ease back to the new speed before the car in front has begun to break.
Being behind the same car for a long time has other advantages too, you get to observe their driving behavoiur and range of reactions to various events, as well as those in the queue ahead, you can soon anticipate most of what they're going to do before they even know they're going to do it.
There is, of course, always the risk of being involved in a pileup that may have been avoidable if you had a larger gap available to you. I have never been in that siuation, so do not know if observing so far ahead will actually help to avoid it. I would like to think (hope) that you would see the sudden stop forming ahead and take some kind of evasive action, either pre-emptive braking or a dive into a different lane.
So, does the safety gains of these small advantages negate the increased risk of losing your short periods of having longer gaps. I don't know. I'm not a statistician and would have no idea of how to assign a value to two very different kinds of risk reduction. However with my approach the level of risk is relatively constant, wheras with the gap->filled->slow->gap approach the risk is constantly shifting up and down which I find more stressful.
Some other related points:
Regardless of approach used would have to do VERY early evasive braking to stop the guy behind from running into the back of you. I know that Paul advocates leaving a double sized gap when you have a tailgater but if you accept that any large gap will get filled, leaving a double sized gap will just result in 3 cars filling it.
Having been rear ended twice (neither on a motorway or as a result of anything relating to the situations described above I should point out) I think I would go for the dive into another lane option first, which is why I try to avoid staying alongside other vehicles for too long. Always have at least one escape route planned. I'm sure Paul would at least agree with me on this point
