malcolmw wrote:
Along with a few other countries, are we approaching an "irreducible" minimum of deaths on our roads? There must be a "random noise" number of accidents which will not be amenable to reduction as their cause is not identifiable and preventable by reasonable means. In otherwords, our rate of improvement is falling as we asymptotically near this minimum.
Yes and no. We're looking for - and entitled to - exponential decay in road deaths. It does get harder and harder to save a life. But the degree of this effect is predictable.
With exponential decay we get a constant percentage reduction every year - every year that's fewer lives saved and one day we might decide that the last few hundred lives per year are not worth the investment.
But we can ALWAYS makes cars safer. We can always makes roads safer. We can always get better at post crash medical care. (Where 'always' means for the foreseeable future.
And the proof is that we have had exponential decay in road risk values since the dawn of motoring. Until the mid 1990s that is...