Horse wrote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
And last, but by no means least, deaths and risk are very badly correlated - a very safe very busy road may well have more deaths than a quiet but (comparatively) dangerous road. Drivers need to know about individual risk, not population risks.
Ho Yus . . .
That very same stretch of M4 was listed by Eurorap (or whatever) as one of the safest roads in the UK . . . and that was publicised almost the same day as another fatal . . .
It was one of the criticisms regularly aired on the late lamented Cumbria board that the Motorway was targetted despite its low fatal:traffic ratio. (IIRC)
Although I think the consensus was that if you have a fatality reduction tool, it should be placed where it's likely to have the greatest effect, ie the road with the highest number of fatalities.
It makes sense to me if you had a van which, when placed on or above or at the side of a road, reduced fatalities by 50%, then it would be most effectively placed on the road with the largest number of fatalities.
A motorway might have 12 fatalities per year along it's 40 mile stretch, or 2 fatalities per BVKM.
The A590 in Cumbria might have 4 fatalities per year but a fatality rate of 10 per BVKM (both guesses)
It'd be better to save 50% of 12 than 50% of 4.
I've a feeling however that you might find a tiny flaw in my analysis.
