Safe Speed Forums

This seems intuitively wrong. The railway line is in use for a very low proportion of the time compared to a road.

I don't know how many passengers are carried from London to Manchester by rail each day on the supposedly "full" network but it cannot compare to the M1/M6 constant flow 24 hrs per day.

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Malcolm W.
The views expressed in this post are personal opinions and do not represent the views of Safespeed.

Does it?

M1 from Luton to London carries more people than the train line that runs alongside it during rush hour?

“The maximum throughput of a single motorway lane is currently about 1,800 vehicles per traffic lane per hour (based on the Highway Code 2 second rule) with a throughput of people of about 2,880 (based on average occupancy of 1.6 people per vehicle).

One of the key arguments in favour of High Speed 2 is that there is not sufficient capacity on the roads. High Speed 2 will initially offer four trains an hour with 1,100 seats per train and will therefore only provide 4,400 additional movement per hour”.

So, just to be clear, that’s 2,880 people per hour on a single motorway lane. Now I don’t know of a single motorway lane because the ones I go on are always three lanes, so I don’t know where they got that statistic from But let’s run with it for now...

I make that 2,880 x 3 lanes = 8,640. Let’s round it down so as not to deliberately make it look worse for trains. And we haven't mentioned the cost of train travel yet

We have only got normal, irregular, trains for the foreseeable future, but let’s be optimistic and say we’re using HS2 already shall we. That’s still a couple of thousand more people per hour, (every hour), by road unless I’ve missed something?

Also, and this is the point, (or one point Malcolm was making I think), the “not sufficient capacity on the roads”, mentioned above, can be increased with higher speeds. So, aside from the rather weak argument you make weepej, that there’s always likely to be an accident in lane three, I think it’s conclusive that bums in cars have a greater throughput per hour than bums on seats in trains. (Although I’m sure if you look hard enough you may find exceptions, as with most arguments).

Ref

As always, you seem to be trying to make an argument, or have a fight, over something obvious. Having been to Devon more times than I can remember, I know I can get there quicker by maintaining 70mph than this “always going to be a lane or two blocked & going faster makes no difference" argument. If all else fails, and logic isn’t enough, there’s nothing quite like empiricism...

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The views expressed in this post are personal opinions and do not necessarily represent the views of Safe Speed.
You will be branded a threat to society by going over a speed limit where it is safe to do so, and suffer the consequences of your actions in a way criminals do not, more so than someone who is a real threat to our society.

I agree that people watching rallies, have to expect cars to leave the track, I've seen it many times myself, although never seen anyone get hit, but although people don't expect cars to leave the road and mount pavements (which I am sure counts for very low incidents, compared to other pedestrian accidents and is a weepy red herring), they surely have to expect that if they walk out into a road, either looking or not, that they are putting themselves at risk of being hit by a moving car just as the spectator who stands on the outside of a forest bend does.

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My views do not represent Safespeed but those of a driver who has driven for 39 yrs, in all conditions, at all times of the day & night on every type of road and covered well over a million miles, so knows a bit about what makes for safety on the road,what is really dangerous and needs to be observed when driving and quite frankly, the speedo is way down on my list of things to observe to negotiate Britain's roads safely, but I don't expect some fool who sits behind a desk all day to appreciate that.

And where do these endless supply of cars come from? The magic car tree that all councils plant alongside a new road?

Maybe they come from other roads...surely not!!!!

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My views do not represent Safespeed but those of a driver who has driven for 39 yrs, in all conditions, at all times of the day & night on every type of road and covered well over a million miles, so knows a bit about what makes for safety on the road,what is really dangerous and needs to be observed when driving and quite frankly, the speedo is way down on my list of things to observe to negotiate Britain's roads safely, but I don't expect some fool who sits behind a desk all day to appreciate that.

That’s what I don’t get Graball. I’ve heard this said before and I’ve never understood it. If you have X amount of cars and Y amount of roads, if you then open a bypass or new motorway, unless there’s some miracle injection of cars overnight, you now have the same amount of cars occupying a larger quantity of road space.

If the current amount of cars starts to fill these extra roads then, logically, that will reduce to there being less cars on the pre-existing road network. It may not feel like it, because there are so many damn cars in such a small country, but that is theoretically what should happen.

If I were teaching Maths for Dummies, using the same principle, if there’s 30 kids in a classroom and I open the store room whereupon 5 kids enter that storeroom, that means there’s now only 25 in the classroom and they have more space. That is, unless, five more new kids enter the classroom all at once. (The equivalent of a load of cars suddenly “injected” into our road network).
Can someone who keeps saying the roads just get filled up explain this phenomenon to me please? Maybe it’s because when people hear there is a new road opening in their area, all the families who can afford it suddenly think “I know - We should increase to being a four car family instead”.

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The views expressed in this post are personal opinions and do not necessarily represent the views of Safe Speed.
You will be branded a threat to society by going over a speed limit where it is safe to do so, and suffer the consequences of your actions in a way criminals do not, more so than someone who is a real threat to our society.

Scientific name for it is induced demand apparently.

Tone, what percentage of vehicles in the UK do you think are travelling on the roads at say 8am the morning?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_demand

There are only so many drivers in the UK (30 million I think) they aren;t suddenly going to increase overnight if a new motorway opens and those without cars aren't suddenly going to buy one just because a new motorway has opened.

Ok if the price of luxury yachts or apartments in Monaco, dropped overnight, you would expect a bigger demand but i really don't see people buying a car just because a new bypass comes to town.

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My views do not represent Safespeed but those of a driver who has driven for 39 yrs, in all conditions, at all times of the day & night on every type of road and covered well over a million miles, so knows a bit about what makes for safety on the road,what is really dangerous and needs to be observed when driving and quite frankly, the speedo is way down on my list of things to observe to negotiate Britain's roads safely, but I don't expect some fool who sits behind a desk all day to appreciate that.

Yet we have satnav companies marketing satnavs that are clever enough to direct you past the new bypass through the town 'cos the bypass they built to relieve town traffic is full of vehicles...

Go, on, what's the answer? I'm intrigued if no-one else is.

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My views do not represent Safespeed but those of a driver who has driven for 39 yrs, in all conditions, at all times of the day & night on every type of road and covered well over a million miles, so knows a bit about what makes for safety on the road,what is really dangerous and needs to be observed when driving and quite frankly, the speedo is way down on my list of things to observe to negotiate Britain's roads safely, but I don't expect some fool who sits behind a desk all day to appreciate that.

I don't know, it was an illustrative question with a side question of how many drivers aren't driving..

Well that's pretty pointless if you don't know the answer but I'm guessing the true percentage is far lower than what you imagine it to be. I would say far less than 50%

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My views do not represent Safespeed but those of a driver who has driven for 39 yrs, in all conditions, at all times of the day & night on every type of road and covered well over a million miles, so knows a bit about what makes for safety on the road,what is really dangerous and needs to be observed when driving and quite frankly, the speedo is way down on my list of things to observe to negotiate Britain's roads safely, but I don't expect some fool who sits behind a desk all day to appreciate that.

Interestingly, the distance travelled by each car on the road has fallen (5800-5300 miles/YR)(Average) since 2002.
Now, fuel is at 137.9/Ltr (local), then it was at 69.9/Ltr.
Young people are shunning driving....etc.

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20120214195326/http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/statistics/datatablespublications/trends/current/section1rvc.pdf

From:

http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/statistics/datatablespublications/trends/current/section1rvc.pdf

This is interesting to contemplate:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/news/vote2001/hi/english/main_issues/sections/facts/newsid_1203000/1203475.stm

The old ones are the best !

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The world runs on oil, period. No other substance can compete when it comes to energy density, flexibility, ease of handling, ease of transportation. If oil didn’t exist we would have to invent it.”

56 years after it was decided it was needed, the Bedford Bypass is nearing completion. The last single carriageway length of it.We have the most photogenic mayor though, always being photographed doing nothing

Exactly, Jom, people aren't going to suddenly start driving just because there are more roads available. With the cost of fuel at the moment people are driving as little as possible.

A prime example of the fallback of Weepy's logic can be demonstrated locally to me. Pre M54 the A5 was a busy road at any time of day and at bank holidays it was attrocious. Now the M54 has been open and the A5 bypass between Wellington and Shrewsbury, there is virtually no traffic on the old A5 and don't forget, Weepy, there are more cars on the road now than 20 years ago, so where are all the magic cars that are supposed to saturate the old A5 as well as the new roads?

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My views do not represent Safespeed but those of a driver who has driven for 39 yrs, in all conditions, at all times of the day & night on every type of road and covered well over a million miles, so knows a bit about what makes for safety on the road,what is really dangerous and needs to be observed when driving and quite frankly, the speedo is way down on my list of things to observe to negotiate Britain's roads safely, but I don't expect some fool who sits behind a desk all day to appreciate that.

A lot! But I don't see the relevance. If It's to suggest more trains, or the frequency of them, are increased then the same generally applies to private transport also.

If we're going to start answering a question with a question, can you be more specific about my previous analogy?

8:00 a.m. is manic whether you're walking, biking, driving or on a train. There wil be small variations in chosen mode for a multitude of reasons, (price, time, weather etc.), but that doesn't dismiss, and you haven't answered, my analogy.

Add. Soz Grabs, my post sent just at the mo yours did..

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The views expressed in this post are personal opinions and do not necessarily represent the views of Safe Speed.
You will be branded a threat to society by going over a speed limit where it is safe to do so, and suffer the consequences of your actions in a way criminals do not, more so than someone who is a real threat to our society.

Naturally fuel prices have their part to play too.

Which question?

The kids in a class, store room opens = more space for existing kids analogy.

Forget it, I've lost interest...

So I wonder which would win in a fight between a crocodile and a polar bear........?

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The views expressed in this post are personal opinions and do not necessarily represent the views of Safe Speed.
You will be branded a threat to society by going over a speed limit where it is safe to do so, and suffer the consequences of your actions in a way criminals do not, more so than someone who is a real threat to our society.

Are you comparing actual or potential capacity?

Given a dedicated railway link between Manchester and London you could run 250 trains a day (that a six minute seperation) each with a capacity of 500 people: 120 thousand people per day.

On a motorway with a six second seperation you could get 24 * 60 * 60 /6 cars per day per lane. Given that one lane is given over to commercial traffic and that the average car can manage five people at a push we have 87 thousand people per day.

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When I see an adult on a bicycle, I do not despair for the future of the human race. H.G. Wells
When I see a youth in a motor car I do d.c.brown

Unless there are 25 hours in a day, you could only run 240 trains a day


But if we're talking theoretical capacity, on the road you could run double-decker buses carrying 75 people each at 6-second headways, thus giving 1,080,000 people even on a two-lane road.

A typical passenger railway line maybe has four trains an hour carrying 200 people each (and that's being generous). Assuming the average 1.6 people car occupancy, that's 8.3 cars a minute - not exactly a hugely busy road.

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"Show me someone who says that they have never exceeded a speed limit, and I'll show you a liar, or a menace." (Austin Williams - Director, Transport Research Group)

Any views expressed in this post are personal opinions and may not represent the views of Safe Speed