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PostPosted: Wed Jun 23, 2004 16:58 
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Jolly Roger wrote:
In other words, you have discovered that drivers tend to slow down when they see a hazard, rather than ploughing straight into it. Ground-breaking work indeed, on a par with discovering that the sky is blue, and water is wet.


Perhaps you would like to reference any other work that moves towards putting a numerical relative importance on this vital driver behaviour, compared with, say, free travelling speed?

That's what the 12mph page does.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 24, 2004 00:19 
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Jolly Roger wrote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
The thing that upsets me is that whenever one asks a question that might actually be revealing he simply doesn't answer. :(


There's a phrase concerning pots and kettles that comes to mind. You've got a politician's instinct for dodging difficult questions yourself.


And you still have not told me where the mad lad said he breaks the laws! :wink: - eh Jolls! :wink:

And why you think I am "PC" :wink:


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 24, 2004 00:28 
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Jolls when you see hazard - brain registers and foot moves to brake pedal - normal time for you as Mr Average Numpty (not intended as offence - using as collective) in 0.7 seconds. This is why COAST is so vital. This enables you to monitor the hazard and the speed of vehicle and maximise reaction time. Thus - mate - you would be slowing down your motor in good time.

And yes - deaths do indeed occur at low speeds - just as much as they do at high ones.

COAST would apply to all driving whether 5mph or 70 mph! :wink:


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 24, 2004 09:22 
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SafeSpeed wrote:
Jolly Roger wrote:
In other words, you have discovered that drivers tend to slow down when they see a hazard, rather than ploughing straight into it. Ground-breaking work indeed, on a par with discovering that the sky is blue, and water is wet.


Perhaps you would like to reference any other work that moves towards putting a numerical relative importance on this vital driver behaviour, compared with, say, free travelling speed?

That's what the 12mph page does.


No, Paul, it doesn't. The 12mph attempts to establish the relative importance of free travelling speed and something called "driver response". However, you don't define what "driver response" is, and refuse to answer questions about how it would be measured. Until you do that, the 12mph is meaningless.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 24, 2004 10:47 
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(Detects the sound of a very large bee in a very small bonnet).

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 24, 2004 11:18 
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In Gear wrote:
Jolls when you see hazard - brain registers and foot moves to brake pedal - normal time for you as Mr Average Numpty (not intended as offence - using as collective) in 0.7 seconds.

No offence taken - I'm quite happy to admit that my driving skills are well below average.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 24, 2004 11:45 
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Jolly Roger wrote:
I'm quite happy to admit that my driving skills are well below average.

How can you tell? How do you define "average"? is it number of prangs or near-misses? It it passenger response to your driving? Is it not entirely possible that you, along with the large majority of the population, are inside a bell-curve distribution of skills, somewhere between the lower and upper quartiles? And don't forget that "average" is a much mis-used term, which can be very meaningful (average height, weight etc) or completely meaningless (average family size of 2.4 children, eg). I think we need to know more about your self-assessment.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 24, 2004 14:57 
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Jolly Roger wrote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
Jolly Roger wrote:
In other words, you have discovered that drivers tend to slow down when they see a hazard, rather than ploughing straight into it. Ground-breaking work indeed, on a par with discovering that the sky is blue, and water is wet.


Perhaps you would like to reference any other work that moves towards putting a numerical relative importance on this vital driver behaviour, compared with, say, free travelling speed?

That's what the 12mph page does.


No, Paul, it doesn't.


I'm well aware of your opinion. However, you are wrong :!:

Jolly Roger wrote:
The 12mph attempts to establish the relative importance of free travelling speed and something called "driver response". However, you don't define what "driver response" is, and refuse to answer questions about how it would be measured. Until you do that, the 12mph is meaningless.


In this context driver response is any driver behavior that reduces speed before impact.

I haven't refused to answer questions. It could be measured post event in terms of speed reduction before impact, but it becomes harder to measure when we realise that it is also of critical importance in near misses, far misses and even everyday "very far misses".

The fact that the true value of driver response is almost imponderably difficult to measure says absolutely nothing about its IMPORTANCE.

Clearly countless tens of thousands of road deaths are avoided each year by driver response - just imagine how many would die if all drivers shut their eyes at once and carried on driving for 30 seconds - say at noon tomorrow - and that's just one day.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 24, 2004 15:05 
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CJB wrote:
Jolly Roger wrote:
I'm quite happy to admit that my driving skills are well below average.

How can you tell? How do you define "average"? is it number of prangs or near-misses? It it passenger response to your driving? Is it not entirely possible that you, along with the large majority of the population, are inside a bell-curve distribution of skills, somewhere between the lower and upper quartiles? And don't forget that "average" is a much mis-used term, which can be very meaningful (average height, weight etc) or completely meaningless (average family size of 2.4 children, eg). I think we need to know more about your self-assessment.

It took me six attempts to pass my driving test; I drive about twice a week; my girlfriend complains that I "drive like a tourist" and I've an annual mileage of less than 2000. If I'm not of below average skill, then British drivers are a sorry shower indeed.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 24, 2004 15:11 
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Jolly Roger wrote:
It took me six attempts to pass my driving test; I drive about twice a week; my girlfriend complains that I "drive like a tourist" and I've an annual mileage of less than 2000. If I'm not of below average skill, then British drivers are a sorry shower indeed.

In which case perhaps you should take steps to improve your skill level before pontificating to others about safe driving.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 24, 2004 15:23 
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Would it be fair to say that the most important measure of "driver quality" is simply how much risk posed (to ourselves and to other road users) at any time one takes to the road.

It may well be that drivers like J-R are actually quite safe, assuming he has mastered the fundamentals of vehicle control. His self-perception of poor ability combined with good old self-preservation probably means he has a higher concentration level than someone with more confidence. He is also less likely to "push the envelope", so is probably operating with a much larger safety margin of grip / stopping distance etc - exactly the type of driver who receives the biggest potential benefit from modern driving aids like ABS and Brake-Assist. Risk compensation in reverse.

So it may well be that J-R is a safer driver than someone else with fantastic car control skills but an ego to match, driving right up to his limits everywhere. If so, then where does he sit on the "driver quality" scale?

It's been said many times, but attitude is far more important than skill level in producing safe drivers, and that is where training should concentrate - rather than the set-piece battle of "how to pass the driving test" that current training concentrates on.

On the other hand he may simply be a complacent numpty that thinks he must be safe simply because he's travelling within the speed limit. :roll:

Either way, it's all about attitude...

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 24, 2004 15:47 
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Jolly Roger wrote:
If I'm not of below average skill, then British drivers are a sorry shower indeed.
I think quite a few of them are. :( I hate to keep banging the same drum, but I can't help thinking that increased enforcement would help. And by that I mean real enforcement by trafplods, rather than the bastardized mail order enforcement we have at the moment.
JT wrote:
It's been said many times, but attitude is far more important than skill level in producing safe drivers, and that is where training should concentrate
Might be splitting hairs a bit here, but I've always thought that being a good driver doesn't necessarily equal being a good motorist. I reckon JT's right about attitude. The right attitude in a below average driver can still make them an above average motorist, if by that we mean driving with consideration and courtesy for other road users. I'd rather share the road with people like that than very skilled drivers with 'screw you, I'm best' attitudes. That said, I think that most of the people with 'screw you' attitudes probably don't have anything like as much skill as they imagine.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 24, 2004 16:48 
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Jolls - did say to you back in the earlier days of your Inked Up mode - when you mentioned the 6 attempts to pass the test - that this did not make you a driver with poor technique. Pal of mine is excellent driver - but he took more driving testst than you did! :wink:

Guy took exams all the time - exams in surgery, in his specialist area ...

Driving? He could drive me anywhere. When he was L-plated - went out with him on the road. Lovely driver. But mention the words "driving test" and ... :roll: :shock: :cry: Nerves took over!

Once he was through his test - he just continued driving as any normal driver. Still a pleasure to be a passenger in his car. And like you - he reads Paul Ripley's advice, and he also lurks on this site. he finds the driving tips very useful. :wink:

You really do need to get in the car a little more often though. I said it to you before - I think you need to build up your confidence. Get out and about - find a nice quiet car road and possibly a car park (for practising variety of manoeuvres, parking, and braking - discover how your ABS works in peace and quiet) and build from there - including motorways and dual carriageways.

But -- cars develop safety gadgets - ABS and like - but we need to know how to use them properly. Hence another good argument for the continuous assessments we have discussed in the "Improve Road Safety" forum. Attitude - likewise - assessed at same time. (Germans have some kind of psychometric test in their L-test )

But don't do yourself down - you read the right kind of books, (Ripley and HC :wink: Try "Roadcraft"! :wink: IAM's "How to Pass Your Advanced Test!" :wink: ) Like we said to you - chill out and COAST :lol:

By the way - why do you think I am some kind of serial law breaker? Have the odd blip over on occasion (as all other drivers - even you!) - but do not welly it up and down the country!


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 25, 2004 00:41 
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Mad Moggie, are you not a doctor?
I wouldnt fancy being operated on by a surgeon that took ages to pass his/her exams. Seems to me that the longer it takes the less aptitude you have. OK you or anybody can be trained but there has to be a certain aptitude in existence before excellence can be obtained. Give me the natuural any day, especially when doing something my life depends on, like surgery and driving.

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 25, 2004 01:02 
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itschampionman wrote:
Mad Moggie, are you not a doctor?
I wouldnt fancy being operated on by a surgeon that took ages to pass his/her exams. Seems to me that the longer it takes the less aptitude you have. OK you or anybody can be trained but there has to be a certain aptitude in existence before excellence can be obtained. Give me the natuural any day, especially when doing something my life depends on, like surgery and driving.

An interesting analogy, but not entirely relevant.

The difference is that only a tiny percentage ever make it as surgeons, whereas virtually all of us drive. If you had to be operated on by a randomly selected member of the public, who had simply passed a 1 day rudimentary course in surgery then things might be different.

Sure it might be nice to think you could get a true "petrolhead" enthusiast surgeon but they are only a few percent of the population, what you would be more likely to end up with is someone with substantially less talent, who has just enough aptitude to get by.

In which case would you rather be operated on by someone with 20% ability and 80% concentration, or the other way round? Either way it's a compromise.

Oh, and to complete the analogy, what you now need is a "surgeon camera partnership" that actively seeks out and prosecutes the ones who operate the quickest, without stopping to decide whether they are doing a good job or not! :lol:

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 25, 2004 08:51 
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SafeSpeed wrote:
Jolly Roger wrote:
The 12mph attempts to establish the relative importance of free travelling speed and something called "driver response". However, you don't define what "driver response" is, and refuse to answer questions about how it would be measured. Until you do that, the 12mph is meaningless.


In this context driver response is any driver behavior that reduces speed before impact.

Including obeying the speed limit ?
Quote:
I haven't refused to answer questions. It could be measured post event in terms of speed reduction before impact, but it becomes harder to measure when we realise that it is also of critical importance in near misses, far misses and even everyday "very far misses".

The fact that the true value of driver response is almost imponderably difficult to measure says absolutely nothing about its IMPORTANCE.

I'm not saying it isn't important. I'm saying that if you can't place a numerical value on something ( driver response ), you can't put a numerical value on how it affects another numerical value ( accident severity ) relative to a third numerical value ( speed ).
Quote:
Clearly countless tens of thousands of road deaths are avoided each year by driver response - just imagine how many would die if all drivers shut their eyes at once and carried on driving for 30 seconds - say at noon tomorrow - and that's just one day.


But no-one is advocating that everybody drive around with their eyes shut. That example is just as silly as this one: just imagine how many would die if all drivers suddenly accelerated to 100mph at once and carried on driving for 30 seconds - say at noon tomorrow...


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 25, 2004 08:57 
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PeterE wrote:
Jolly Roger wrote:
It took me six attempts to pass my driving test; I drive about twice a week; my girlfriend complains that I "drive like a tourist" and I've an annual mileage of less than 2000. If I'm not of below average skill, then British drivers are a sorry shower indeed.

In which case perhaps you should take steps to improve your skill level before pontificating to others about safe driving.


So because I'm not a driver of above average ability, I shouldn't be able to offer views on road safety policy, despite that fact I use the roads as a cyclist, pedestrian, and ( sometimes ) driver ?


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 25, 2004 09:50 
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Jolly Roger wrote:
SafeSpeed wrote:
In this context driver response is any driver behavior that reduces speed before impact.

Including obeying the speed limit ?


IF it could be shown to be a significant factor AND the means of causing obeyance didn't interfere with something more important, THEN yes, of course.

But neither of those conditions appear to be met.

Jolly Roger wrote:
Quote:
I haven't refused to answer questions. It could be measured post event in terms of speed reduction before impact, but it becomes harder to measure when we realise that it is also of critical importance in near misses, far misses and even everyday "very far misses".

The fact that the true value of driver response is almost imponderably difficult to measure says absolutely nothing about its IMPORTANCE.

I'm not saying it isn't important. I'm saying that if you can't place a numerical value on something ( driver response ), you can't put a numerical value on how it affects another numerical value ( accident severity ) relative to a third numerical value ( speed ).


At present we just know that driver response is a HUGE factor. I'm quite sure it could be estimated given a suitable research budget.

One of the big problems for all of us is that the right research simply has not been carried out. There are far too many things that science does not know about road safety.

A very important part of what I'm doing is to highlight such deficiencies.
Jolly Roger wrote:
Quote:
Clearly countless tens of thousands of road deaths are avoided each year by driver response - just imagine how many would die if all drivers shut their eyes at once and carried on driving for 30 seconds - say at noon tomorrow - and that's just one day.


But no-one is advocating that everybody drive around with their eyes shut. That example is just as silly as this one: just imagine how many would die if all drivers suddenly accelerated to 100mph at once and carried on driving for 30 seconds - say at noon tomorrow...


Look. No. Think about it. The debate is about the importance of driver response. With their eyes shut they won't respond and they would crash. It's a worthy thought experiment (nothing more!) that illustrates to our imaginations that drivers crash UNLESS they respond.

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 25, 2004 10:24 
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Jolly Roger wrote:
So because I'm not a driver of above average ability, I shouldn't be able to offer views on road safety policy, despite that fact I use the roads as a cyclist, pedestrian, and ( sometimes ) driver ?

As driving is an everyday activity performed by a large majority of adults, it's not unreasonable to expect anyone offering opinions on how to do it well and safely to have attained a reasonable degree of competence. Would you accept advice on DIY from someone whose house was full of wonky shelves?

Having said that, as you are someone who obviously takes an interest in the subject, you may be understating your level of competence.

On a more general note, it's depressing how many people cheerfully say "I'm a crap driver" without any embarrassment, when driving is the only thing they do regularly that has potentially lethal consequences.

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 25, 2004 10:58 
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We need road options that suit the range of needs we have.

Someone who tootles down the road to see a mate and drives a couple of thousand miles a year has completely different needs from someone like me who commutes 150 miles each way every week and drives 20 thousand miles a year.

Tourists and sightseers need different options from trucks and commuters. Fast small vehicles need different options from heavy slower vehicles and from slow, inexperienced drivers.

One size fits all and "traffic calming" making everyone travel at the same speed doesn't work. Some get frustrated and others get terrified.

In my opinion, the only solution is to bring private enterprise initiatives into road management and services. Otherwise stagnation, frustration and inefficiency will continue for ever.

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