RobinXe wrote:
system-wide, only one fifth of occupants are not wearing their seatbelt at any one time (average figure for all occupant types of cars and vans for Oct 06), yet one third of serious injuries involve an unbuckled occupant. This is known as over-representation and, given the balancing effects of a large sample-set on extraordinary factors, points strongly to seatbelts being of positive effect to road safety.
Yes, the larger the sample set the more likely it is that the figures will show overall effects, and on the basis of the simple one-fifth/one-third comparison your point would appear proven. But how is the raw data acquired and processed? For a start, what determines whether an injury is classified as serious or non-serious for inclusion? Do all investigating authorities use the same standard?
None of which is relevant to the basic point that the government has no mandate for forcing somebody to do something for his own good anyway.
smeggy wrote:
It seems clear to me that you don’t understand over-representation and under-representation. I could reply by saying:
how many people who do buckle up have not been killed and have never been injured because of that?
Precisely my point against your argument over numbers.
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The fact is that, statistically, for 2005, there is an almighty correlation between non-belters and fatalities. Would you agree?
Almighty correlation? No. If non-belt users were 10% of vehicle occupants and represented 90% of fatalities, then I think you might be able to apply that adjective (although there would still be room for argument about other factors). I would say there is some apparent correlation.
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What you say could well be true and is happening to some extent (some drunkards forgetting to belt up), but the level of over-representation strongly suggest that behaviour doesn’t nearly account for it. Would you agree?
Possibly, if the number of cases examined were large enough.
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I interpret a fall within the trend spreadsheet Paul Smith gave earlier in this thread (for 1991 too).
Yes, I have acknowledged that the graphs show a drop from 1982 to 1983. But given the way you are claiming that belts are so good at saving lives and serious injuries, and given the huge jump in wearing rates quoted when the law was introduced, just where is the corresponding "alimighty" drop in the injury/fatality figures?
And I repeat this question: Given that the belt law coincided with a huge campaign against drunken driving, how can you attribute any noticeable fall in the figures to belts alone anyway? And how do you account for the fact that seat belts -- if they were responsible -- were remarkably selective at saving people more during the late night/early morning than at other times?
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I repeat: seatbelt design probably wasn’t as good in 1982 as they are now; also, at that time people were being forced to doing something they didn’t usually do. Both these factors are less significant today. Would you agree?
On the latter point yes. On the former, what has really changed that much about seat belt design in the last 25 years? Pre-tensioners on some models now is about the only thing which springs to mind.
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Would you allow people the right of choice where the 'wrong' choice will result with needless pain/death of others?
I think that's a rather broad question to answer easily. There are all sorts of things where one could argue for restriction of freedom on the grounds that a person's actions might result in harm to other, however indirectly.
Barkstar wrote:
The last - and only - car I had with non-inertia 3 point belts was 20+ years ago and was of 1972 vintage Hillman Avenger (with drum brakes all round!!). IIRC they disappeared in the early 70's when there became a requirement that seat belts could be put on with one hand.
I think that may have been around the changeover point to 3-point inertia belts for outboard front seats in most parts of the world. I had a '72 Pontiac in which the driver and outboard front passenger belts were in two sections -- A locking reel lap belt plus a separate manually adjustable shoulder strap which could be clipped into the lap-belt buckle if required, or just stored in a ceiling holster if not wanted. (The middle front seat was just an adjustable lap belt.)
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There will be very very few daily runners that still have non-inertia and classic cars and US imports generally do a lot fewer miles.
I don't dispute that, but the seat-belt law does not make an exemption for these cases, so they should be taken into consideration.