Safe Speed Forums

The campaign for genuine road safety
It is currently Thu Mar 28, 2024 09:47

All times are UTC [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 17 posts ] 
Author Message
PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 13:32 
Offline
Life Member
Life Member
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 22, 2006 13:54
Posts: 1711
Location: NW Kent
For example could we get meaningful data on members predictive ability. What you would record, for example, is instances where you think "that driver is about to turn right" even though they have not yet switched on an indicator. All you would record would be 'I was right' or 'I was wrong' for any prediction you make.

Would there be any point to this?
Would there be a distraction risk in doing so?
What other data would be needed e.g. length of journey, duration of journey?
Should it be - record for journeys on a particular day only?

_________________
Driving fast is for a particular time and place, I can do it I just only do it occasionally because I am a gentleman.
- James May


Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 14:40 
Offline
User
User avatar

Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2005 13:55
Posts: 2247
Location: middlish
and would the very act of knowing you're partaking in the exercise adversely skew the results ?


Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 15:13 
Offline
Life Member
Life Member
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 22, 2006 13:54
Posts: 1711
Location: NW Kent
ed_m wrote:
and would the very act of knowing you're partaking in the exercise adversely skew the results ?


Do you mean an honesty issue? Possibly, though if we were careful to ensure that any publicly visible results could not be linked with particular drivers then hopefully that would be minimised.

As, even if a passenger recorded the result, you would have to reveal your prediction there is no way of making this particular experiment blind. I suppose you could randomly discard half of the results so no particular driver would know if there data was included. Getting statistically significant samples would be enough of a problem without this though.

_________________
Driving fast is for a particular time and place, I can do it I just only do it occasionally because I am a gentleman.
- James May


Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 15:30 
Offline
User
User avatar

Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2005 13:55
Posts: 2247
Location: middlish
no.. i mean if i set out every drive thinking whether i was anticipating someone else's right turn.. i'd probably be more focussed on that than i usually am.


Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 15:34 
Offline
User
User avatar

Joined: Wed Mar 30, 2005 13:55
Posts: 2247
Location: middlish
sorry.. i'm being negative.

perhaps that particular experiment isn't an ideal example.

the question 'would there be any point' is probably key.... what conclusion are you looking for ? what's the theory you're looking to prove/disprove ?

safespeed members are better drivers than everyone else ? ! (and to what end.)

perhaps drivers who exhibit this positive behaviour also exhibit this other behaviour.... or drivers with this behaviour are X times more succesful at Y.


Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 15:36 
Offline
Life Member
Life Member
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 22, 2006 13:54
Posts: 1711
Location: NW Kent
ed_m wrote:
no.. i mean if i set out every drive thinking whether i was anticipating someone else's right turn.. i'd probably be more focussed on that than i usually am.


I was thinking of the ratio between correct and incorrect predictions rather than total numbers so that effect should not matter. I would be more concerned if it caused a distraction for the driver.

_________________
Driving fast is for a particular time and place, I can do it I just only do it occasionally because I am a gentleman.
- James May


Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 17:03 
Offline
Life Member
Life Member
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 22, 2006 13:54
Posts: 1711
Location: NW Kent
ed_m wrote:
sorry.. i'm being negative.


No, I would say you are examining the idea critically which is fine by me.

ed_m wrote:
perhaps that particular experiment isn't an ideal example.

the question 'would there be any point' is probably key.... what conclusion are you looking for ? what's the theory you're looking to prove/disprove ?


It occurred to me when I was reminded of a thread discussing sixth sense on the road. I was wondering if we could do experiments to see if there was any reason to think some drivers could get more correct predictions than others. I am not suggesting psychic powers but the concious and unconscious ability read what other drivers are doing.

A connected experiment would try to look at the ratio of predictable to unpredictable drivers, measured subjectively.

ed_m wrote:
the question 'would there be any point' is probably key.... what conclusion are you looking for ? what's the theory you're looking to prove/disprove ?


Is there a point? - why do you think I posted this in brainstorming?

It is possible that we could collect data to better understand what exactly safe driving is.

ed_m wrote:
safespeed members are better drivers than everyone else ? ! (and to what end.)


Unless it was possible to run the same experiment with non-SafeSpeed members I do not see how this could be done. I think anything along the lines of 'do you brake for speed cameras?' or 'do you see other drivers brake for speed cameras?' would have too much built in bias to be of any value.

ed_m wrote:
perhaps drivers who exhibit this positive behaviour also exhibit this other behaviour.... or drivers with this behaviour are X times more succesful at Y.


Only if you can demonstrate a specific link in the behaviours, you have to be very careful in making links based on coincidental matching of statistical values.

Edit - should use preview first.

_________________
Driving fast is for a particular time and place, I can do it I just only do it occasionally because I am a gentleman.
- James May


Last edited by Toltec on Thu Feb 07, 2008 17:32, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 17:13 
Offline
Gold Member
Gold Member
User avatar

Joined: Wed Dec 08, 2004 14:26
Posts: 4364
Location: Hampshire/Wiltshire Border
I can't help thinking that references here to SS experiments will produce some strange results on Google.

_________________
Malcolm W.
The views expressed in this post are personal opinions and do not represent the views of Safespeed.


Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 17:31 
Offline
Life Member
Life Member
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 22, 2006 13:54
Posts: 1711
Location: NW Kent
malcolmw wrote:
I can't help thinking that references here to SS experiments will produce some strange results on Google.


Sorry, can you change the thread title?

Erm, any hits are good hits?

_________________
Driving fast is for a particular time and place, I can do it I just only do it occasionally because I am a gentleman.
- James May


Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 18:16 
Offline
User

Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2005 00:06
Posts: 301
Location: Swindon
Could it be carried out from the passenger seat while someone else is driving? Personally I can predict a random idiot is going to do something stupid (though not always what stupid thing they'll do) with about 90% accuracy.

_________________
Smokebelching,CO2 making,child murdering planet raping,granny mugging,politically incorrect globally warming (or is it climate changing now it's getting colder?)thug.
That's what the government want you to believe of me. If they get back in I'm emigrating.


Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2008 23:49 
Offline
Life Member
Life Member
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 22, 2006 13:54
Posts: 1711
Location: NW Kent
Nos4r2 wrote:
Could it be carried out from the passenger seat while someone else is driving?


Do not see why not.

Nos4r2 wrote:
Personally I can predict a random idiot is going to do something stupid (though not always what stupid thing they'll do) with about 90% accuracy.


I know what you mean, drivers that you see and decide to give them that bit of extra space. It is almost as if they have no idea what they are going to do themselves until they do it.

Predictably unpredictable? Perhaps better to so say that you can anticipate that their actions will not be predictable.

I know that we could not be particularly rigorous as that would require time and resources I doubt we have. Does anyone think there may be any mileage in this idea?

_________________
Driving fast is for a particular time and place, I can do it I just only do it occasionally because I am a gentleman.
- James May


Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2008 00:22 
Offline
User

Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2005 00:06
Posts: 301
Location: Swindon
toltec wrote:
Nos4r2 wrote:
Could it be carried out from the passenger seat while someone else is driving?


Do not see why not.

Nos4r2 wrote:
Personally I can predict a random idiot is going to do something stupid (though not always what stupid thing they'll do) with about 90% accuracy.


I know what you mean, drivers that you see and decide to give them that bit of extra space. It is almost as if they have no idea what they are going to do themselves until they do it.

Predictably unpredictable? Perhaps better to so say that you can anticipate that their actions will not be predictable.


I call them ditherers-it fits rather well-and I'm glad someone else knows what I mean!

_________________
Smokebelching,CO2 making,child murdering planet raping,granny mugging,politically incorrect globally warming (or is it climate changing now it's getting colder?)thug.
That's what the government want you to believe of me. If they get back in I'm emigrating.


Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2008 23:23 
Offline
Life Member
Life Member
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 22, 2006 13:54
Posts: 1711
Location: NW Kent
I guess that will be a no then.

Back to Yak hunting then.

_________________
Driving fast is for a particular time and place, I can do it I just only do it occasionally because I am a gentleman.
- James May


Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2008 22:17 
Offline
Gold Member
Gold Member

Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 23:26
Posts: 9263
Location: Treacletown ( just north of M6 J3),A MILE OR TWO PAST BEDROCK
Nos4r2 wrote:

I call them ditherers-it fits rather well-and I'm glad someone else knows what I mean!



I tend to use the phrase "guess where I'm going ,or going to do next "to describe them .
And that's the ones I'd like to experiment on --lobotomy perhaps. :lol:

_________________
lets bring sanity back to speed limits.
Drivers are like donkeys -they respond best to a carrot, not a stick .Road safety experts are like Asses - best kept covered up ,or sat on


Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
PostPosted: Sat Feb 23, 2008 02:22 
Offline
Site Admin
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 02:17
Posts: 7355
Location: Highlands
toltec wrote:
For example could we get meaningful data on members predictive ability. What you would record, for example, is instances where you think "that driver is about to turn right" even though they have not yet switched on an indicator. All you would record would be 'I was right' or 'I was wrong' for any prediction you make.

Would there be any point to this?
Would there be a distraction risk in doing so?
What other data would be needed e.g. length of journey, duration of journey?
Should it be - record for journeys on a particular day only?


I might have called the title Perceptions of Driving ... we might change it ...

To run a Poll is something that can be done, easily, then you can analyse that data.

Rather than 'predictions' I feel that you are really referring to experience of 'driver & car 'body' language'.
This is gained through much experience, great observation, forward thinking and planning, knowledge and attitude.
As good drivers the 'predictions' are really a summary of our experience. The 'pat on the back' that we can give ourselves, when our assessments are successfully fulfilled, is pleasing, as we have correctly perceived another's action and in doing so, have enabled our own actions to be better pre-empted.
Now this is excellent, as it enables a far higher standard of driving, and a 'ghost-like' appearance on the road, and to other road users. (i.e. they never knew you were there, because you didn't want them to.)

You are so far ahead of them - usually attained by good solid knowledge and experience and using your eyes and mind, to our full ability, that no one 'knows' you were even there.
It also takes the concept of the simple 'hazard perception' and amplifies it to it's top level.

_________________
Safe Speed for Intelligent Road Safety through proper research, experience & guidance.


Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2009 01:45 
Offline
Site Admin
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 02:17
Posts: 7355
Location: Highlands
In re-visiting this thread I can see that I totally failed to really answer your suggestion.

I see this driving predictability of others as a regular action that good drivers are very likely to do to varying degrees.

I think a list of writing down how often you 'try to predict' and are correct / wrong and why, answers would be most interesting.
Times of day to - length of journey ...
It may help to show when we are in tune to this extent of concentration, whether we do this for gen info in driving or for specific occasions, when we are more relaxed or at all times.
I think it could show just how much info we gather against those that do not do this, that info is useful and helpful to show just how much info a driver could use to driver more safely.
We might also learn when we subtly do this to learn another's intentions as opposed to 'for idle interest'.

I know that I can 'home in' when I see the vehicle repositioning and then follow the train of thought for their likely action about to occur.
Perhaps a up and coming Left or R turn.
On the motorway I can 'sit back' and assess who is going to go where and when and time my movements to precision and even help to very subtly encourage their action or prevent it when timed just right.
By looking and learning about subtle car controls and observations we should be able to learn more about the why's and when we do this.

--------
How about we try a small experiment to see what we might learn from this ?

How about over this week when we drive we deliberately think about this and choose to try and see as much as possible about who is going where and see how far back we are before we think about the 'target' vehicle and if we are right or wrong and IF we change our mind and WHY - what told us ?
We can think - do these subtle abilities keep us in better command and control AS a result do we EVER get into situations? When did we last get into a close shave or does this subtle behaviour make us 'naturally' more aware not only to our movements but also of all others all about us.
Long term does this make us safer?
---------

Any one fancy doing this for a week, and just give a short report daily, or after each drive, or at the end of the week .....
As an experiment to try and see if by asking questions we can analyse more from this than we are initially aware.
How often do we analyse several cars at once too ... ?
What constitutes this actual observance technique or is it more widespread and mixed in with all road info (i.e. junction on M/way coming up so 75% of cars now in L1 are turning off - yep I am right - sort of thing) This way the road info told us of pending action - not justt he cars movements ....

_________________
Safe Speed for Intelligent Road Safety through proper research, experience & guidance.


Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
PostPosted: Mon May 11, 2009 15:22 
Offline
User

Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2009 10:38
Posts: 105
Location: Sydney, Australia
When I was teaching my children to drive I started showing them this for about a year before they got their learners licence (at 16 in New South Wales) calling it "body language". This was part of teaching them to look further ahead than they were used to - my daughter did not look beyond a couple of metres in front of her so I had to teach her to look out to a hundred metres and spot what was going on.
It was trying to instill into them to spot the vehicle that was going to do something wrong - to develop an instinct for it. Somethings are more obvious than others. The car approaching a junction that is not slowing down or looking at you; the driver who is erratic in steering and speed. It is not something that I was concious of before I was teaching them and even now it is too instinctive to record.
Did it work for my children? In their year on L-Plates they showed me many times that they saw and dealt with the issues.

_________________
The only thing that should be prohibited is prohibition.


Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 17 posts ] 

All times are UTC [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You can post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
[ Time : 0.038s | 13 Queries | GZIP : Off ]