Rigpig wrote:
I think the point BW is trying to make, is that nobody really knows what unforseen event may lie around the next corner, or over the brow of the next hill, or appear from the sky.
The problem is, we canot go around, either driving or otherwise, acting as if some utterly unforseen and random event is going to coincide with our passage through its transient occurence. We'd never go anywhere or do anything.
But that's the whole point, Rigpig, besides that's
not what he said
If you don't know what's around the next bend you do slow down and/or use extra caution until you do know.
Obviously, you cannot take
all eventualities into account - you have to discount highly unlikely scenarios, otherwise you'd walk around wearing a crash helmet in case someone dropped a piano on your head.
If you're sufficiently well aware of hazards and significantly potential hazards ahead then you
know whether or not you're doing a safe speed at the time - unless you're very inexperienced.
And if you're not sufficiently aware, then you should be - because if you're not sufficiently aware then no speed above zero is safe.
And awareness, concentration, attention or whatever you want to call it is by far the most important safety weapon in a drivers armoury. The level and frequency of hazards determine the risk, and the risk increases disproportionately with the level of hazard. And, as an aside, this brings another important point that reducing speeds may be counterproductive because it could vey well lead to increased intensity and frequency of hazards - people take more chances when they feel safe.
Awareness, positioning and speed can all be used to mitigate the risk, but awareness is the most important and speed the least important. The system is far more tolerant of speed errors than it is of awareness errors.
Where a high level of hazard exists it's important to reduce speed, but far more important to increase awareness. We don't make a safe (or relatively safe) situation any safer by slowing down, rather we slow down
because of increased danger. There's a very subtle, but highly important distinction here.
If we all drove around at the limit wherever and whenever it was physically possible to do so, and only ever reacted when there was something already in our path, there would be absolute carnage on the roads - which would make the current casualty rate look like nothing.
Driver awareness is absolutely crucial to road safety. It's the negative feedback loop which prevents the casualty output from increasing exponentially. We mess with that feedback loop at our peril.
Cheers
Peter