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PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 19:07 
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Times online link

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Britons have a one in 200 chance of being killed in a road crash, according to an unpublished Department for Transport report that reveals how the death rate has improved only marginally in the past decade.


Quote:
Figures from hospitals show that serious injuries from road crashes have hardly changed since 1996. The number of road deaths fell by only 7 per cent between 1998 and 2006, from 3,412 to 3,172.

Britain had the best road safety record of any European country in 2000 but since then has been overtaken by the Netherlands, Sweden and Norway, all of which have lower death rates per 100,000 residents.


It's nothing we didn't already know, but it is good that The Times is highlighting the problem with the current policy.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 20:49 
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semitone wrote:

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Britain had the best road safety record of any European country in 2000 but since then has been overtaken by the Netherlands, Sweden and Norway, all of which have lower death rates per 100,000 residents.


It's nothing we didn't already know, but it is good that The Times is highlighting the problem with the current policy.


What IS policy in the Netherlands, Sweden and Norway?

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 22:38 
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I note the report is "unpublished".

So, how has this been calculated?

Say 3,200 deaths per year. Average lifetime of 80 years. UK population 60M. Chance of dying = 3200 x 80 / 60M = 1 / 234 approx.

Rubbish?

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2008 22:45 
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So what? In anyone's lifetime they have a 1 in 200 chance of dying in a road accident.

Yes, and??? :scratchchin:

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 08:42 
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PeterE wrote:
So what? In anyone's lifetime they have a 1 in 200 chance of dying in a road accident.

Yes, and??? :scratchchin:


We all have a 1 in 1 chance of dying in some way or other.

Not that going west in a road crash is in my top 5 :(

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 09:11 
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I imagine boredom must be moving up the league table as a candidate!

Best wishes all,
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 09:57 
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malcolmw wrote:
I note the report is "unpublished".

So, how has this been calculated?

Say 3,200 deaths per year. Average lifetime of 80 years. UK population 60M. Chance of dying = 3200 x 80 / 60M = 1 / 234 approx.

Rubbish?


That's exactly how they calculated it, but it does make a good headline... It's actually not bad odds when compared to deaths from cancer and heart disease. The difference is that car crashes kill more young people and disease mostly kills older people and so is more acceptable to most people.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 10:02 
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Rigpig wrote:
PeterE wrote:
So what? In anyone's lifetime they have a 1 in 200 chance of dying in a road accident.

Yes, and??? :scratchchin:


We all have a 1 in 1 chance of dying in some way or other.

Not that going west in a road crash is in my top 5 :(

Few if any non-deliberate ways of dying are particularly pleasant. Which is why IMHO euthanasia, with appropriate safeguards and only in very specific circumstances, should be an option, but that's another topic. ;)

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 18:00 
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Can you reduce the odds by taking up a particularly dangerous sport - thus increasing your odds of dying in some other manner, or do the odds remain the same.

Also, do you have to be in a vehicle, or can you be a pedestrian or cyclist run down by a vehicle? :?

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 19:00 
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Quote:
3,412 to 3,172


Blimy a whopping 10% reduction...time is running out for th 40% target we used to keep getting reminded of.....oops sorry that’s KSI not just K

Any how, with a one in three chance of dying from heart disease and one in three chance of dying of cancer I will happily take my chances on the road.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 19:39 
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Ernest Marsh wrote:
Can you reduce the odds by taking up a particularly dangerous sport - thus increasing your odds of dying in some other manner, or do the odds remain the same.

Also, do you have to be in a vehicle, or can you be a pedestrian or cyclist run down by a vehicle? :?


Yup! Still a road crash, even two pedestrians running into each other.

Meanwhile jump on a train and you're 20 times safer than in a car and about 200 times safer than walking and cycling. Some people in London refuse to use the underground instead of walking in spite of this....

Cycling is just a bit safer than walking, so I think pedestrians should wear helmets not cyclists ;).


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2008 23:18 
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But are these figures that are so often bandied about expressed as "per 100,000 passenger kilometres? If so, I fundamentally disagree with this way of doing it. I believe it should be "per passenger JOURNEY". Doing it the other way unfairly (IMO) weights it in favour of modes of transport that cover large distances (like planes). Nobody gets on a plane to go to the corner shop!

When I embark on a journey, I want to know what my chances are of finishing it in one piece - not what the chances of completing "Mile 267 - 268" intact are!


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 Post subject: Airplanes not so safe
PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 02:00 
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Flying is pretty safe its the take off and landing that's generally a bit dodgy. So if you only do short haul this is particularly risky.

If you don't believe that flying is a bit iffy get a life insurance quote and then see what happens when you phone back and say your a pilot.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 15, 2008 10:04 
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Mole wrote:
But are these figures that are so often bandied about expressed as "per 100,000 passenger kilometres? If so, I fundamentally disagree with this way of doing it. I believe it should be "per passenger JOURNEY". Doing it the other way unfairly (IMO) weights it in favour of modes of transport that cover large distances (like planes). Nobody gets on a plane to go to the corner shop!

When I embark on a journey, I want to know what my chances are of finishing it in one piece - not what the chances of completing "Mile 267 - 268" intact are!


Quite. A blinding example is the Space Shuttle. In "passenger miles" it is about the best there is, but you chances of being killed riding it are about 1 in 50

(Even so, If I was offererd a ticket I'd go in a heartbeat!)

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