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 Post subject: ONE THIRD LIE
PostPosted: Mon May 10, 2004 23:15 
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Joined: Sat Mar 06, 2004 22:34
Posts: 603
Location: West Scotland
Hi all,

I was reading the 1/3 lie on the website and, as we all know, accidents attributed to exceeding a posted limit are probably only 2% or thereabouts then I thought well how would the speed have CAUSED the accident. Maybe it was a contributing factor but I can't see how speed itself can CAUSE the accident therefore I think it is safe to say 0% of accidents are CAUSED by exceeding a posted limit. Maybe the authorities should say that breaking a posted limit CONTRIBUTES to the severity of 2% of accidents.

With regards to KSI figures spouted to justify cameras:

What about the distinction between:

(1) car accident on its own (no injuries)

(2) Multiple car accident (no injuries)

(3) Same as both above but with injuries

(4) Accident only involving pedestrian

(5) Accident involving both cars and pedestrian (no injuries to driver)

(6) As above but with driver and pedestrian injuries

(7) As above with deaths involved

(8) cyclists involve

(9) and all the rest

It is quite obvious that simply saying injuries or deaths does nothing to show all the contributing factors above, which is only a fraction of what could be considered. If it was mainly drivers that were being killed then it is unfair to target speed cameras at reducing say pedestrian deaths ot cyclist deaths where the driver death was caused by, inexperience, drink/drugs, tiredness, car thief/chase etc. none of which a camera can prevent.

Andrew


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue May 11, 2004 00:16 
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Joined: Mon May 10, 2004 23:03
Posts: 5
Location: London
Mmm... I think that the lines between causal factor and contributary factors are pretty blurred. For instance, if a rally driver were to clip a pothole or rock on the apex of a corner and lose control of their vehicle I would probably suggest that it was a misjudgement, a loss of directional control or even just plain unlucky. On the other hand, if a "normal" road user were to have the same accident (on the same piece of road) it might reasonably be suggested that their speed meant that they were driving beyond their abilities and do not have the benefit of pace notes. (Not the greatest example I know, but I'm sure you get the point).

The bottom line is that your driving plan always includes some risk (in the form of hazards that you may not have seen or can not reasonably expect to appear). Speed can be considered to be a causal factor when other, more obvious, risks have not been taken into account.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue May 11, 2004 02:12 
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Joined: Sat Mar 06, 2004 06:46
Posts: 16903
Location: Safe Speed
Yes, this is an interesting area. The deeper we dig into accident causation the more complex it gets. Take the simplest excessive speed accident - a car travelling too fast runs wide on a bend and crashes.

Why was the car travelling too fast?
*maybe the driver didn't observe the bend properly?
**why didn't the driver observe the bend properly?
***Maybe the driver was distracted?
****why was the driver distracted?
*****Maybe he was changing a CD?
*maybe the driver didn't judge the bend properly?
**why didn't the driver judge the bend properly?
***Maybe he was overconfident?
****why was he over confident?
*****Maybe his mates were egging him on?

And so on - we could build up huge chains of causation for this simplest of accidents. It's ALWAYS a multilayered thing with causes and causes of causes. Sometimes you can climb the tree all the way to a particular item of bad advice that a driver was trying to follow: "never brake in a bend" comes to mind.

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Our scrap speed cameras petition got over 28,000 sigs
The Safe Speed campaign demands a return to intelligent road safety


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