6th
May 2003
Mr Richard
Brunstrom
Association
of Chief Police Officers
25,
Victoria Street
London
SW1H 0EX
Dear
Mr Brunstrom,
I emailed
you in January but received no reply.
There
are speed cameras being rolled out everywhere we look, but I can find no
evidence whatsoever that the speed cameras have saved lives, will save
lives, or even might save lives. In fact I find quite the opposite. Our
fatal accident rate is showing a very worrying trend indeed.
I've
examined TRL 323, which has "excessive speed" as a definite contributory
factor as 6.0% of the population of contributory factors.
I've
looked for other sources of accident causation data in the UK and found
the West Midlands Accident Review, which makes speed a very minor factor
indeed in accident causation.
Where
speed is a contributory factor it is often combined with another factor
which makes speed enforcement irrelevant, including for example, reckless
driving, unregistered or stolen vehicle, drunk driving, Police driver on
call, and especially inappropriate speed within the speed limit. One wonders
if there are any excess speed accidents left that could be
assigned to normal motorists exceeding a posted speed limit.
I've
examined TRL 421 and TRL 511, which are not worth the paper they are written
on. In fact they are blatant, non-scientific propaganda, and I am extremely
ashamed of the TRL. I have written to them pointing out some of the serious
shortcomings in the reports and have yet to receive a reply. I could supply
copies of correspondence if you were interested.
I've
examined the web sites of the so called safety camera partnerships and
I find hopelessly inadequate statistics, which never allow for the "regression
to the mean" errors or national trends. When these errors are corrected
the claimed "benefits" simply vanish.
I've
spoken to Police accident investigators who tell me that driver errors
other than exceeding the speed limit are responsible for the vast majority
of road accidents.
I've
examined the DfT report prepared by PA Consulting about the completion
of the two year pilot of the netting off scheme. In it I didn't find a
single fatal accident statistic. Why is that? I also found transparent
obfuscation and deliberate deflection about the vital regression to the
mean issue.
So
my question for you is: What evidence do you have that these speed cameras
(and the policies which support them) even might save lives?
Any real evidence at all would be welcome.
I maintain
a serious web site, which derides speed enforcement as a central plank
of road safety policy, but the web site is operated with a very high degree
of integrity, and I would be delighted to publish anything at all that
you might have to support present policy. If you visit, you will find a
"statistics challenge" on the first page which promises to publish prominently
anything at all that supports the alternative case.
Please
tell me that you have some clear scientific basis for your support of our
dangerous road safety policy.
Yours
sincerely
Paul
Smith |